PRIORITY 03 · SEEDED SIMULATION
You call the Saturdays. The field moves.
2026 season · 12-team College Football Playoff. Committee order is a clearly labeled approximation, never a claim about the real committee.
Dataset · as of Sep 5
FORCE OUTCOMES
SIMULATION OUTPUT
2,000 runs · seed saturday-2026Projected field
1TexasSoutheastern Conference
Playoff 78%Bye 42%Title 8%
2MichiganBig Ten Conference
Playoff 78%Bye 44%Title 8%
3USCBig Ten Conference
Playoff 76%Bye 42%Title 8%
4OklahomaSoutheastern Conference
Playoff 72%Bye 38%Title 6%
5ArkansasSoutheastern Conference
Playoff 70%Bye 37%Title 6%
6Ohio StateBig Ten Conference
Playoff 67%Bye 32%Title 6%
7Michigan StateBig Ten Conference
Playoff 66%Bye 27%Title 6%
8Mississippi StateSoutheastern Conference
Playoff 61%Bye 24%Title 6%
9PurdueBig Ten Conference
Playoff 61%Bye 24%Title 5%
10FloridaSoutheastern Conference
Playoff 57%Bye 20%Title 5%
11StanfordAtlantic Coast Conference
Playoff 53%Bye 16%Title 4%
12KentuckySoutheastern Conference
Playoff 53%Bye 15%Title 4%
BRACKET SNAPSHOT
Seed 5ARK
Seed 6OS
Seed 7MS
Seed 8MS
Seed 9PUR
Seed 10FLO
Seed 11STA
Seed 12KEN
Top four seeds receive byes under the 2026 twelve-team format. Full probabilities appear in the table above.